Newfoundland and Labrador's Higher Education Institutions are impacted by a changing demographic profile. They need to be able to adapt to demographic and labor market trends and respond to changing training needs. Some of these trends include:
An aging population
Demographics of western industrialized nations are heavily influenced by the high fertility rates and births that occurred in the 20-year period that followed World War II. This baby boom period ended midway through the 1960s. Since then, these countries are experiencing a shift in demographics such that there is an increased, disproportionate aging population. This is also evident in Newfoundland and Labrador. Overall population in the province grew from 361,416 in 1951 to a historical high of 580,109 in 1992. The population then began to decline and is projected to be roughly 481,000 in 2021. In 1951 there were 39.1% aged 0-14 and 6.5% aged 65+, by 2020 those numbers are expected to jump to 12.6% and 23.1% respectively.
In order to increase the province's population, the Budget 2015 introduces an investment of $500,000 to implement the Population Growth Strategy.
Net out-migration of youth
The net migration of Newfoundland and Labrador has been negative for many years as traditionally there have been more people leaving the province than moving in. The province does not provide sufficient jobs or income in the natural resources industries which the economy is heavily dependent on. Young people mainly leave for employment opportunities and better education in other provinces. The net out-migration reached a very high rate following the collapse of cod fishery in 1992 which marked the largest industrial closure in Canadian history. The trend slowed down as the economic shocks were absorbed in the next few years. The increase happened again in 2005 when the economy of Alberta was booming and attracting a lot of workers for construction jobs.
The youth population has declined by almost half from 1986 to 2007, more in rural areas. The number of university-age students (18-24) in Newfoundland and Labrador dropped 27% between 1990 and 2000 and another 6% between 2000 and 2005. Comparatively there was a less than 1% drop in the number of 18- to 24-year-olds in Canada between 1990 and 2000 followed by a 7% increase between the years 2000 and 2005. According to Statistics Canada youth age groups 17 to 29 are those most relevant for post-secondary participation. They predict that in Newfoundland and Labrador this population segment will decline continuously through 2031 as will the number of this segment that participates in postsecondary education in the province.
Graduate migration
For the class of 2000, Newfoundland and Labrador experienced a net out-flow of university graduates equal to 5.2% of the size of the university graduating class, and a net out-flow of college graduates equal to 15.4% of the size of the college graduating class. However, the 23% tuition decrease from 2000-01 to 2003-04 and subsequent tuition freeze at Memorial University has resulted in a 50% decline in the number of undergraduate students from Newfoundland and Labrador leaving to attend other universities in Atlantic Canada. In 2000-01 Newfoundland and Labrador students made up 4% of the undergraduate population of Maritime universities, but in 2007 this number had declined to only 2%.
Overall, participation in post-secondary education in Newfoundland and Labrador is higher than the national average at approximately 32% in 2005. This represents an 8% increase since 2000.